Su Kennongfa (601952): It is estimated that the benefit policy of the leading rice and wheat plantation is expected to be better

Su Kennongfa (601952): It is estimated that the benefit policy of the leading rice and wheat plantation is expected to be better
Core point of view Leading rice and wheat planting, backed by Nongken Group to enjoy high-quality production base.The company’s predecessor can be traced back to the state-owned Dadong Farm, which was established in 1956. It has undergone the transformation of ownership by the whole people, a limited liability company, and a joint stock company.The company, as a large-scale enterprise integrating self-operated planting bases as its core resources, integrates crop planting, breeding and breeding, agricultural product processing and sales as a whole industrial chain.Backed by the Nongken Group’s independent planting and operation of nearly 1 million acres of high-quality production bases, gradually integrated integration, industrialization, and regional resource competition.  The business structure is reasonable and the historical performance is stable.In 2018, the company fully implemented the “two-wheel” driving strategy of industrial operation and capital operation, and achieved operating income of 48.84 trillion, ten years +13.16%; net profit attributable to mother 6.05 ten percent, +8.66%.In terms of revenue structure, the proportion of each business is: rice 35.3%, big wheat 22.7%, rice industry 23.1%, seed industry 23.0%, agricultural resources 20.9%, by-product 35.2%, contracted gold and other about 4.5%, the internal restructuring overlap due to the integrated operation of the industrial chain, reaching -64.7%; Taking into account the differences in gross profit 南京夜网论坛 margins of various businesses, rice, big wheat, seed industry, and rice industry are the main sources of performance, with gross profit accounting for nearly 80%.In historical performance, the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to the mother during the period from 2014 to 2018 were 8.6%, 5.5%, general growth, performance flexibility is slightly insufficient; in the dilute ROE, even in the past two years due to the decline in operating leverage, IPO funds raised and marginal changes, but always maintained above 10%, stable performance, better profitability.  A reasonable estimate of the supplementary policy is expected to be good and has configuration value.We believe that the current company’s estimates are reasonable and the existing policies are expected to achieve: 1) The company’s performance is highly correlated with 成都桑拿网 rice and wheat prices. Under normal circumstances, the probability of excessive price fluctuations is not high. This aspect limits the company’s upward elasticity, butIt also provides the company with stable operating expectations, and the company can use this copyright to estimate the premium; the company’s current price-earnings ratio is about 19.4 times, in a reasonable range; 2) In the past ten years, the national minimum purchase price of rice and wheat has shown an overall upward trend. In the context of the current trade war, the growth of national food security strategy has become increasingly prominent, and there are expectations of an increase in the purchase price of food.The increase in the purchase price of wheat will directly increase the company’s performance.  Earnings forecast and rating: The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.42 yuan, 0.49 yuan and 0.58 yuan, currently corresponding to the 2019-2021 price-earnings ratio of 19 respectively.5 times, 16.9 times and 14.3 times, taking into account the company’s regional resource advantages and strong business prospects, short-term changes in rice and wheat price cycles will not affect the long-term and medium-term stability expectations. For the first time, the company will be given a “cautious recommendation” rating. Risk warning: the impact of natural disasters; rice and wheat prices fluctuate more than expected.