Gujing Gongjiu (000596) 2019 Interim Review: Overall growth momentum is good, and performance elasticity continues to be released
Matters: The company released its 2019 Interim Report and achieved revenue of 59 in 19H1.
8.8 billion, an increase of 25.
19%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 12.
4.8 billion, an increase of 39.
88%, of which 19Q2 income was 23.
20 trillion, the same increase of 4.
34%, net profit 4.
65 trillion, an increase of 49.
The Q2 revenue growth rate in Q1 was in line with expectations, mainly due to the change brought by the off-season issuance confirmation. In view of the overall performance of H1, the overall performance of H1 remained good, and the profit performance slightly exceeded expectations.
19H1 sales rebate 53.
52 trillion, with an increase of 28.
4%, net operating cash flow increased by 55.
At 7%, cash flow performed well.
Q2 fluctuated for a long time, and H1’s overall growth momentum was good.
Liquor revenue in the first half of the year was 58.
80,000 yuan, an increase of 24.
85%, the business goals are well completed, Q2 revenue growth rate is restructured from the previous quarter, mainly due to Q1 revenue settlement confirmation replacement, off-season issuance confirmation replacement and the existence of a high base.
Although there are certain fluctuations in the quarter, the overall performance of H1 remains stable.
Combined with channel feedback, the province’s perspective is that the province has entered the golden development period through the price band of 200-300 yuan in the province. The high-end price band of more than 300 yuan has expanded significantly. The company’s product structure has continued to upgrade.The ancient 8 and ancient 16 have active card slots, and the proportion has continued to increase. The ancient 20 has a strong layout after listing last year. It does not rush to think about operation and actively seizes the core sub-high-end consumer groups in the province. Currently, ancient 8 and above products account for 25%.Markets such as the Hefei market in the provinces, the proportion of ancient 8 and above increased rapidly.
The top of the company’s faucet in the province is stable, and the hematopoietic function is further strengthened.
From the perspective of other provinces, the company is stricter and more explicit about the promotion of sub-high-end nationalization, and has actively adjusted in terms of organizational structure coordination and cost pre-investment in other provinces.
The Henan market has proposed rebuilding the Anhui market in the past, and encountered difficulties in structural adjustment. However, the market situation has gradually opened since last year. The products at the adjustment point have been actively upgraded, and the proportion of ancient 7 and 8 products has increased.
Yellow Crane Tower H1 income 4.
5.7 billion, an increase of 6.
4%, consolidating the market foundation is more important than short-term sales volume; the investment layout of Hebei and Shandong and other markets is in good condition.
In addition, the company H1 received advance payment 5 at the end.
1.7 billion, down 35.
6%, down 53.
6%, mainly affected by off-season factors, is included in the Mid-Autumn Festival peak 成都桑拿网 season for payment and stocking, and Q3 is expected to improve.
Cost optimization has released flexibility, and net interest rate has increased significantly.
19H1 company gross profit margin 76.
7%, down by 1.
5pcts, of which the gross profit margin of liquor decreased by 1.
1 to 77.
5%, which is mainly due to the increase in packaging materials and labor costs.
Looking at the expense ratio, the sales expense ratio in 19H1 was 30.
7%, down 2 every year.7 items, of which Q2 sales expense ratio fell 7 year-on-year.
1 to 29.
0%, single-season sales expenses fell by 16 each year.
Taken together, 19H1 comprehensive promotional expenses7.
880,000 yuan, with a decrease of 3.
3%, advertising costs 4.
4.2 billion, an increase of 29.
8%, continued to maintain brand exposure.
19H1 effective interest 无锡夜网 rate 24.
7%, down by 1.
2pcts, tax rate 14.
5%, a slight decrease previously.
Company 19H1 net profit 21.
3%, an increase of 2 per year.
2 pcts, although the growth rate of Q2 revenue has been declining, but the expenses have also been replaced accordingly. From this point of view, the product structure upgrade and cost optimization in the first half of the year have brought significant improvements in profitability.
The idea of rebuilding Xingujing in five years is clear, and steady growth is expected in the post-ten billion era.
After completing the Group’s 10 billion target, the company proposed to rebuild Xingujing in five years. The three major connotations include digitalization, internationalization and legalization of Xingujing.
We believe that in the post-ten billion era, the company has a clear strategy of dual brands and double ten billion. The vintage pulp series will start ten years later. It is optimistic that its performance will continue to grow steadily. The driving factors come from: 1) the upgrade of the product structure drives the gross profit margin; 2)With intensive cultivation of channels and a stable structure, there is room for compression in the province’s expense ratio, and at the same time, structural upgrades also bring about dilution of the expense ratio; 3) Positive release of performance.
Investment suggestion: The overall performance of the company H1 remains good, the scale, volume and price can be expected to increase. The subsequent adjustment of the power points will actively arrange the next high-end. The product upgrade will take another step forward.The layout is rapidly advancing, and steady and medium-term performance can be expected.
We slightly raised our EPS forecast for 2019-21 to 4.
08 yuan, corresponding PE is 26/20/17 times, maintaining a 12-month target price of 142 yuan, corresponding to about 25 times PE next year, maintaining a “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risks; increased competition risks; demand is less than expected.