Shenzhen Airport (000089): Long-term growth logic of slightly higher-than-expected costs in the fourth quarter remains unchanged

Shenzhen Airport (000089): Long-term growth logic of slightly higher-than-expected costs in the fourth quarter remains unchanged

Event: On March 30, Shenzhen Airport released the 2018 Annual Report (1)北京夜网 Business: Gradually realizing aircraft takeoffs and landings35.

60,000 times, an annual increase of 4.

6%; passengers exploded 4934.

90,000 person-times, an increase of 8 in ten years.

2% of which 458 were international and regional passengers.

40,000 person-times, an annual increase of 27.

4%, international and regional tourists accounted for 9.

3%.

(2) Finance: Initially realized operating income of 35.

99 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

38%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies6.

68 ppm, an increase of 1% in ten years; net profit after deduction is 6.

25 ppm, a decrease of 2 per year.

15%.

1.

The cost growth of Shenzhen Airport in the fourth quarter slightly exceeded expectations. In 2018, Shenzhen Airport’s net profit after non-deduction was gradually reduced.

1佛山桑拿网5%, slightly lower than expected, mainly due to the increase in operating costs in the fourth quarter.

Operating costs in the fourth quarter increased by 1 compared with the third quarter.

6.6 billion, the increase mainly breaks through two aspects: ① Encourage airlines to use wide-body aircraft, and increase flight incentive costs caused by flights.

This part is a one-time cost; ② maintenance, environmental and labor costs.

Taking into account the need to ensure the efficiency of security services and salary adjustments, maintenance in 2019 may continue to increase labor costs.

2.

Actively develop international routes, and marginal improvement is continuing. Shenzhen Airport is actively developing international routes.

In 2018, Shenzhen Airport added 15 international passenger traffic navigable cities, including 9 intercontinental passenger traffic navigable cities, and the number of newly added international air traffic cities ranked first in the country.

The increase in the number of international passengers and the optimization of their structures often mean higher purchasing power.

Compared with the scale of gateway airports in other first-tier cities, Shenzhen Airport currently has a relatively low tax-free income, but the growth potential is huge. The active development of international routes will directly increase the number of international passengers at Shenzhen Airport and optimize the passenger structure. A new situation for Shenzhen Airport’s tax-free business is expected to open.
3.

The Satellite Hall is expected to be put into production by 2021, and the short-term impact on performance will not affect the historical experience of major domestic hub airports. The commissioning of infrastructure can open up the airport’s value space.

At present, the passenger explosion at Shenzhen Airport has reached the designed capacity of Terminal T3. The commissioning of the new satellite hall can open up Shenzhen Airport’s supply of high-rises, ensure the rapid and sustained growth of the main aviation business, and increase the time limit and the space for passenger structure optimization.

The construction of the Shenzhen Airport Satellite Hall is progressing steadily, and it is expected to be put into production in 2021, which will not impact the airport performance in the short term.

4.

The airport industry’s long-term logic has not been broken. Waiting for time to feed back Shenzhen Airport. It is a first-tier city airport with the capital, Shanghai and Baiyun. It is the highest quality core asset of China’s civil aviation industry.

At the same time, Shenzhen Airport will enter the maturity period of non-navigation from the growth stage in the future, and the proportion of non-navigation will gradually increase, which will accelerate the release of performance.

The forthcoming fourth-quarter cost growth will exceed expectations, and will change the long-term growth logic of Shenzhen Airport. The airport investment will be appropriately diluted by events and continue to struggle steadily with reasonable estimates.

5,

Investment suggestion: The company’s operating income is expected to be 39 in 2019-2021.

25, 42.

38, 48.
5.2 billion, with a net profit of 7.
43, 8.

86, 9.

2.4 billion, corresponding to PE of 27.

67 times, 23.

22 times, 22.

25 times.

Maintain the “Recommended” level.

Risk warning: aviation accidents, major policy changes, and significant increase in operating costs