SAIC (600104): Volatility in the auto market under pressure to try to pick up in 2020

SAIC (600104): Volatility in the auto market under pressure to try to pick up in 2020

Event: On January 14, 2020, the company released its 2019 annual performance forecast.

The company estimates that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2019 will be 25.6 billion U.S. dollars, which will decrease by 10.4 billion U.S. dollars to 28.

9%.

Net profit after deduction was 21.4 billion, a decrease of 11 billion compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 34%.

The company’s total vehicle sales in 2019 were 623.

80,000 vehicles, a decrease of 11 a year.

53%.

The automobile market fluctuates, and the company is under short-term pressure. The company’s annual vehicle sales in 2019 are 623.

80,000 vehicles, a decrease of 11 a year.

Among them, the sales of SAIC-GM-Wuling increased a little bit, the sales of SAIC-GM-Wuling increased by 16%; the sales of SAIC-GM-Wuling increased by 1.6%, which was 19%.

In addition, SAIC Volkswagen sold 2 million units, a decrease of 3% each year; Shanghai Automotive sold 670,000 units, a maximum of 4% per year.

The car converted to the National Five, National Six model in 2019 has exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand, and multiple factors such as the compensation of the decline in domestic new energy vehicles have led to the decline of the industry.

In 2020, the policy of the new energy vehicle market is picking up. Tesla and Volkswagen MEB are expected to make efforts at the 2020 Auto Hundreds. The heads of the relevant departments of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the new energy vehicle policy will remain stable in 2020 and there will be no major decline.The information inspires confidence in the development of the new energy vehicle industry in 2020 and beyond.

By the end of 2019, Tesla’s localization has exceeded expectations, the official delivery of Tesla Model 3 in the Chinese new energy vehicle market, and the Volkswagen MEB new energy vehicles scheduled to be officially put into production in the second half of 2020 are in the current Chinese new energy vehicle market.Has excellent cost performance and product competitiveness.

In 2020, through the recovery of the policy environment and the heavy volume of Tesla / MEB, the company is expected to increase its new energy vehicle business.

Investment advice and profit forecast China’s passenger car sales will decline in 20199.

6%, while luxury car sales represented by BBA still maintained positive growth.

With the localization of SAIC Audi, localization of Tesla, and mass production of Volkswagen’s MEB platform, we believe that the company’s performance is expected to pick up; and the profit of luxury cars is generally larger, and the company’s performance is expected to continue to drive.

Therefore, we expect the company’s net profit attributable to its parent to be 257 in 2019-2021.

24 ppm, 280.

04 ppm and 286.

110,000 yuan, corresponding to PE 11x, 10x, 10x.

Maintain the “overweight” rating.

Risks suggest that the macroeconomic development is worse than expected, the auto market sales are lower than expected, the auto market competition is intensified, and new energy vehicle sales are lower than 都市夜网 expected.