Dongcheng Pharmaceutical (002675): Nuclear medicine leader takes off, swine fever blessing heparin turning point up
Leading domestic heparin company, China Nuclear Medicine Leading Company.
After years of development, the company initially became one of the domestic biochemical raw material drug production bases, and then successively acquired Chengdu Yunke Pharmaceutical, Shanghai Yitai Pharmaceutical, Dongcheng Xinke, Nanjing Jiangyuan Antico, and completed the company’s transition from biochemical raw materials toThe layout of the nuclear medicine sector.
At present, the company’s business sector continues to improve. The nuclear 杭州桑拿 medicine sector has developed into the company’s core sector. It is expected to promote the release of the potential of nuclear medicine in the Chinese market in the future, and the performance will continue to grow steadily!
Unbalanced demand for heparin raw material suppliers will lead to future price increases, and the company is expected to benefit in the future after African swine fever.
Due to the African swine fever epidemic in the Chinese market, the slaughter volume of pigs will decline in 2019-2020. We judge that the price of heparin raw materials will increase further in the future.
After the occurrence of African swine fever, we believe that the company will gain something. The company’s crude heparin inventory can hedge the future price increase of crude products and will also benefit from the price increase of heparin raw materials.To the downstream.
The domestic market of nuclear medicine is growing rapidly, and domestic per capita supplementation is far lower than that of the United States, and the market potential is large.
Gradually improve the progress of domestic nuclear medicine, the state and the public’s awareness of narcotics continues to increase, and the domestic nuclear drug industry has developed rapidly with a compound annual growth rate of 18.
About 6%, the domestic market is expected to reach 9 billion US dollars by 2021.
Compared to the United States, domestic per capita expenditures on nuclear medicine increased from 1 in 2012.
8 yuan increased to 2 in 2016.
8 yuan, while the United States from 37 in 2012.
2 yuan increased to 51 in 2016.
9 yuan, the penetration rate of the domestic market is expected to continue to increase, narrowing the gap with the United States.
The integration of nuclear medicine has made rapid progress, Yun Ke, GMS, and Antico’s performance promote sustained and stable growth.
Yunke injection can exert its good therapeutic effect and customer stickiness, plus the company’s active promotion of marketing reform, and its performance continues to grow; 2.
The acquisition of GMS has enriched the distribution of Dongcheng ‘s nuclear medicine pipeline. The target drug has grown steadily. The SPECT / CT benefit allocation certificate has been released. The incremental increase of the target drug has gradually increased. The domestic market of iodine[125I]sealed seeds has continued to grow steadily.2. Urea[14C]breath test kit company is expected to gradually solve the problem of gas card; 3.
The integration of Antico has further made up for the company’s vacancy in positron medicines, and the integration of good R & D and sales teams and nuclear pharmacy resources. Therefore, the network layout of Dongcheng in domestic nuclear medicine has been initially formed.Deco’s core product 18F-FDG will benefit from the release of PET / CT configuration certificates.
Company profit forecast and investment rating.
It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019-2021 will be 3 respectively.
6.5 billion, 4.
62 trillion and 5.
83 ppm, a year-on-year increase of 30%, 27%, and 26%, corresponding to PE of 27X, 22X, and 17X, respectively; EPS is 0.
45 yuan, 0.
58 yuan and 0.
Covered for the first time and given a “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: the price of APIs declines; the performance of the nuclear medicine sector exceeds expectations.